U.S. vendors flooded the market with PCs to avoid looming Trump-era tariffs—but consumers aren’t buying, leaving warehouses packed and demand cratering.
At a Glance
- U.S. PC shipments surged 15% in Q1 2025 as vendors raced to beat tariffs.
- Consumer PC sales are forecast to grow just 2% this year.
- Average new-PC prices have climbed sharply due to inflation and supply shifts.
- Windows 10’s October 2025 end-of-support hasn’t boosted sales as expected.
- Business PC demand remains solid, with projected 8% growth in 2025.
Pre-Tariff Stockpiling Sparks Temporary Surge
Driven by tariff anxiety, U.S. PC vendors accelerated orders in early 2025, pushing Q1 shipments to 62.7 million units—a 15% year-over-year spike. The surge was led by brands like HP, Dell, Lenovo and Apple, all aiming to avoid costs from pending import duties on Chinese-made electronics Reuters report.
But the pre-tariff buying boom failed to translate into retail momentum. Industry analysts at Canalys now project just 2% growth in total U.S. PC sales this year, down from earlier expectations, as households delay or cancel upgrades The Register.
Price Pressure, No Panic Buying
Despite consumer hopes, prices haven’t dropped. Tariff threats and general inflation pushed average PC prices higher—well above $800 for midrange laptops and desktops. Ishan Dutt of Canalys noted that the “tariff-driven stocking rush created a glut, not a price break,” with retailers hesitant to offer steep discounts The Register.
Even Microsoft’s decision to end support for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025, has failed to stimulate urgency among buyers. Most households are taking a “wait and see” approach, wary of big-ticket spending amid broader economic pressure.
Commercial Strength Offsets Consumer Weakness
Unlike the retail sector, business demand for PCs remains strong. Canalys forecasts 8% growth in commercial shipments this year as companies refresh fleets ahead of the Windows 10 deadline. Consumer sales, by contrast, are projected to decline about 4% The Register.
Manufacturers are already adapting. HP says that by late 2025, more than 90% of North American devices will be produced outside China. Lenovo is shifting production as well, aiming to buffer against future trade shocks.
Outlook: Cooling Market, Rising Inventory
The Q1 restock temporarily shielded vendors from disruptions, but inventory is now outpacing demand. Analysts expect further slowdowns unless new incentives—like AI-ready hardware or tax credits—revive retail interest.
Absent those, the PC market faces a long second half: bloated warehouses, shaky consumer confidence, and tariffs that may linger into 2026.