There’s been a dramatic explosion in false flag conspiracy narratives online, now distorting crisis response and eroding public trust.
At a Glance
- Mentions of “false flag” on X rose 1,100% over five years
- Nearly 1 million posts appeared between April and June 2025
- Surge followed mass shootings and Israeli airstrikes
- Analysts link growth to distrust and platform engagement tactics
- Antisemitic framing appeared in several top-performing posts
False Flags on the Rise
The Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) reported a 1,100% increase in use of the term “false flag” on X between 2020 and 2025. The phrase—which implies that violent events are staged or manipulated for political reasons—was posted nearly one million times between April 26 and June 26, 2025. That 350% spike coincided with the Washington, DC and Boulder, Colorado mass shootings, as well as Israeli military actions in Iran. ISD attributes the pattern to a recurring cycle: major crises trigger a surge in misinformation narratives, amplified by distrust and social media algorithms.
Small Accounts, Massive Reach
Valeria de la Fuente Suárez, an ISD digital research analyst, noted that many viral false flag claims originated from relatively low-follower accounts. One user’s post asserting the Boulder suspect was “an Israeli agent” reached over 2.2 million views. Another, captioned “False Flag 100%,” gained more than 3.6 million. Theories often lacked evidence but spread quickly due to engagement-focused platform design and weakened content moderation. As fact-checking tools eroded, conspiratorial content frequently outpaced verified reporting.
Researchers also identified antisemitic tropes in several high-performing posts. Claims falsely implicating Jewish actors or Israeli intelligence in American tragedies gained traction during the peak spike. Analysts warned that such narratives often reinforce broader misinformation campaigns and polarize already volatile discourse.
Digital Mistrust and Offline Consequences
Experts say the popularity of false flag narratives reflects declining trust in media, government, and emergency response systems. By suggesting that real-world suffering is staged, these theories minimize victim experiences and undermine institutional credibility. De la Fuente Suárez emphasized that repeated exposure to these ideas can desensitize audiences, making it more difficult to distinguish fact from fabrication.
Pradeep Krishnan, a communications scholar at the University of St. Gallen, linked the trend to broader political fragmentation. He noted that conspiracy theories thrive in environments of uncertainty, especially when digital tools reward provocative over factual content. The implications, researchers warn, are not just digital—distrust bred online can shape real-world policy skepticism and emergency response behavior.
Sources
WIRED
Institute for Strategic Dialogue
University of St. Gallen