Texas is on track to become America’s most populous state by 2045, surpassing California and reshaping the nation’s political and economic landscape.
Is this why the Democrats are so obsessed with turning Texas blue?
At a Glance
- Texas projected to reach 42 million residents by 2045, overtaking California
- Over 781,000 Californians moved to Texas between 2009 and 2023
- Texas added 3.9 million residents from 2014 to 2024, leading U.S. population growth
- Affordable housing, strong economy, and climate drive migration to Texas
- Demographic shifts could impact Texas’ political landscape and national influence
Texas’ Population Boom: A Demographic Shift
The Lone Star State is experiencing a population surge that could redefine its place in the national landscape. According to recent projections by Realtor.com, Texas is poised to become the most populous state in the U.S. by 2045, with an estimated 42 million residents. This growth trajectory puts Texas on track to eclipse California, which currently holds the top spot with 39.2 million inhabitants.
The influx of new residents to Texas has been remarkable, with the state adding 3.9 million people between 2014 and 2024. This growth outpaces all other states and underscores Texas’ increasing appeal as a destination for both domestic and international migrants. A significant portion of these newcomers hail from California, with over 781,000 Californians making the move to Texas between 2009 and 2023.
Let’s hope the people fleeing California to Texas don’t forget why they left in the first place…otherwise Texas might be destroyed just like California was.
Factors Driving Migration to Texas
Several factors contribute to Texas’ population boom. The state’s robust economy, lower cost of living, and business-friendly environment have attracted both individuals and corporations. Major companies like Chevron, Charles Schwab Corp, and SpaceX have relocated their headquarters from California to Texas, bringing jobs and economic opportunities.
“While cheaper housing has certainly been a boon to both households and businesses in Texas, the competitive advantage is at risk of waning because of rising prices and rents,” a Realtor.com report said.
Despite this warning, Texas continues to offer relative affordability compared to coastal states. The housing market in Texas is thriving, with the state accounting for 15% of all home building approvals in the U.S. in 2024. This construction boom is helping to meet the demand from new residents, though affordability remains a concern for lower-income households.
In other words: people want to live in a Republican-run state.
Economic and Political Implications
This massive population growth in Texas has significant economic and political ramifications. The state’s economy has consistently outperformed the national average, bolstered by its growing workforce and business-friendly policies. Politically, Texas gained two additional House seats and Electoral College votes after the 2020 Census, increasing its influence in national elections.
As the demographic makeup of Texas evolves, so too does its political landscape. The growing Hispanic population and influx of residents from more liberal states have led some to speculate about potential shifts in voting patterns. However, recent elections have shown that political allegiances are not always predictable, with Republicans making gains among Hispanic and Black voters in Texas.
It’s hard to know exactly how this will pan out, but it could either be great for America…or really, really bad.