Rep. Michael McCaul’s announcement that he won’t seek reelection adds to a swelling list of GOP lawmakers heading for the exits before 2026.
At a Glance
- Rep. Michael McCaul (R‑TX) confirmed he will not run for reelection in 2026
- At least 23 House Republicans are not returning after 2026
- Departures include committee chairs and swing-district moderates
- Some GOP members are retiring entirely; others seek higher office
- Party strategists warn of institutional knowledge loss and vulnerable seats
McCaul’s Exit and the Broader Pattern
Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas, a senior Republican voice on national security, declared on Sunday that his current term in Congress will be his last. Citing a desire to continue foreign policy work “in a different realm,” McCaul said the decision was personal and not driven by electoral pressure. First elected in 2004, McCaul’s two decades in Congress included stints chairing both the House Homeland Security and Foreign Affairs Committees.
Watch now: Rep. Don Bacon Announces Retirement
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP95bpwwZ0sMcCaul’s announcement marks yet another GOP departure in what observers are calling a significant wave. As of mid-September, at least 23 Republican members of the U.S. House have declared they won’t seek reelection in 2026. While some are retiring outright, others are pursuing statewide offices, including Senate and governorship bids.
Committee Chairs, Swing Seats, and Party Risks
Among the Republicans not returning are several key figures. Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), a centrist voice in a competitive district, confirmed his retirement, raising immediate questions about GOP hold prospects in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Meanwhile, Rep. Morgan Luttrell (R-TX) and Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) also announced they’ll step away—Luttrell from public office entirely, and Roy to seek Texas’s attorney general post.
These exits carry both strategic and operational implications. In addition to the potential loss of safe seats, the departure of long-serving lawmakers leaves gaps in institutional knowledge and committee leadership. McCaul’s retirement, in particular, means a reshuffle atop the Republican bench on foreign affairs at a time of global crisis engagement, especially concerning Ukraine and China.
Some of the retirees, including Roy and Bacon, have voiced concern over the party’s direction or expressed disillusionment with congressional dysfunction. However, most have framed their exits around career progression or personal decisions. Still, the combined effect could strain the GOP’s ability to hold its House majority and may open the door for Democratic gains in battleground regions.
2026 Outlook and Strategic Response
Party leaders are already working to identify strong contenders to defend open seats. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has not publicly commented on McCaul’s exit but has issued general reassurances about candidate recruitment in vulnerable districts. Political analysts note that while some retirements come from deeply red areas, others—like Bacon’s—could quickly become high-priority contests.
Democrats, meanwhile, see opportunity. With over 20 Republican-held seats opening up and President Biden expected to be off the ticket in 2026, they aim to target select districts where national trends and local fatigue may align. Historically, midterm elections following a presidential reelection year often see swing-seat volatility, and this cycle may prove no different.
Republican strategists hope a focus on border security, inflation, and foreign policy credibility will help blunt any erosion. But with major GOP figures stepping away, the party must now balance defending its flank while rebuilding its leadership bench.