From January to July 2025, U.S. labor market data shows a decline of about one million immigrant-held jobs alongside a gain of roughly 2.5 million jobs for native-born workers, coinciding with increased immigration enforcement measures.
At a Glance
- Immigrant employment fell by an estimated one million in 2025
- Native-born employment rose by about 2.5 million during the same period
- Enforcement actions, including ICE workplace raids, contributed to the shift
- Sectors such as agriculture and food processing face possible labor shortages
- Economists note potential long-term effects on growth and workforce demographics
Enforcement and Labor Shifts
Federal immigration enforcement policies in early 2025 included intensified workplace inspections and high-profile raids. A notable operation in June 2025 at a Nebraska meat-processing facility resulted in the removal of unauthorized workers and was followed by a reported increase in job applications from U.S.-born workers.
According to data from the Center for Immigration Studies and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, these enforcement measures coincided with an increase in native-born employment and a reduction in immigrant employment. While the correlation is clear in the short term, analysts caution that multiple factors influence labor dynamics, and attributing changes to a single policy area can oversimplify broader economic trends.
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Market Impact and Sector Challenges
Industries with historically high immigrant labor participation, such as agriculture, construction, and food processing, may experience staffing challenges as enforcement reduces the available workforce. Labor shortages in these sectors could drive wages higher as employers compete for domestic workers.
Economists from the Chicago Federal Reserve and the St. Louis Federal Reserve have noted that while more native-born workers are being employed in some industries, a reduced immigrant labor force could limit overall economic growth. Immigrants have historically contributed to labor force expansion, and demographic projections suggest slower population growth without sustained immigration.
Perspectives and Ongoing Debate
Data from both government agencies and independent research organizations indicates significant employment shifts in 2025, but interpretations vary. The Center for Immigration Studies views the enforcement measures as a driver of increased job access for native-born workers. By contrast, the Migration Policy Institute emphasizes the role of immigrant labor in maintaining productivity in key sectors and cautions against policies that may disrupt established supply chains.
Given the complexity of the labor market, economists suggest ongoing monitoring to assess how enforcement-driven workforce changes will affect long-term economic stability, wage levels, and industry-specific performance.