Japan’s Ruling Coalition Collapses After 26 Years
Story Highlights
- The Kōmeitō party withdraws from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) coalition after 26 years.
- The collapse complicates Takaichi Sanae’s bid to become Japan’s first female prime minister.
- Ideological differences and political finance reform failures are cited as reasons for the split.
- Opposition parties now have a potential opportunity to form an alternative government.
Coalition Partnership Crumbles
On October 10, 2025, Kōmeitō party leader Saitō Tetsuo announced the party’s withdrawal from Japan’s ruling coalition, ending a partnership with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) that began in 1999. This decision occurred less than a week after Takaichi Sanae assumed leadership of the LDP, creating immediate challenges for her path to the prime ministership. This marks the first breakdown of the LDP-Kōmeitō alliance, which had provided stable governance for over two decades.
Conservative Politics and Ideological Rift
The coalition’s collapse is attributed to fundamental disagreements over political direction and reform priorities. Kōmeitō cited the LDP’s perceived inadequate commitment to political finance reform, particularly concerning restrictions on corporate donations, as a primary concern. Reports indicate that Kōmeitō’s moderate, pacifist-oriented support base, affiliated with the Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai, expressed discomfort with Takaichi’s conservative positions. This ideological incompatibility reportedly led Kōmeitō to prioritize its principles over maintaining the governmental partnership.
Parliamentary Implications and Governance Crisis
Prior to the formal breakup, the coalition already held minority status in both houses of the Diet. Kōmeitō’s departure further diminishes the LDP’s governance prospects. Takaichi now leads the largest single party but lacks sufficient parliamentary support to independently pass legislation. Her stated interest in forming an alternative coalition with the Democratic Party for the People would still leave the government short of a full majority. An extraordinary Diet session scheduled for later in October 2025 is expected to determine Japan’s next prime minister through a process that has become highly unpredictable.
Opposition Parties Consider Government Formation
Multiple opposition parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Nippon Ishin no Kai, now have a mathematical possibility of uniting to form an alternative government. This scenario presents a rare opportunity for opposition parties to assume power through parliamentary means. However, historical rivalries and ideological differences among these parties may pose obstacles to cooperation. The fragmented opposition faces a decision on whether to attempt unity or allow the LDP to continue governing as a weakened minority administration.
Economic and Security Outlook
Political instability raises concerns regarding Japan’s capacity to address economic challenges and maintain consistent policy implementation. Without Kōmeitō’s moderating influence, defense and security policy could potentially shift towards Takaichi’s known hawkish positions, although governmental paralysis may limit significant changes. International relations face uncertainty as foreign governments navigate relationships with a Japanese administration whose composition and durability are currently unclear. The crisis occurs during a period when Japan is confronting demographic challenges, economic pressures, and regional security concerns that require stable leadership and clear policy direction.
Watch the report: Japan’s Ruling Coalition Splits, Komeito Party Ends Alliance Throwing Takaichi’s PM Bid Setback
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