U.S.-South Korea military exercises now assume North Korea will launch nuclear weapons at the start of any conflict, marking a dangerous shift that puts American forces and allies directly in the crosshairs of regime survival desperation.
Story Highlights
- Joint military drills now plan for North Korean nuclear first-use scenarios instead of treating nuclear weapons as last resort
- Kim Jong Un’s regime faces existential threats that make early nuclear deployment strategically rational for survival
- North Korea’s outdated conventional forces create “use-it-or-lose-it” nuclear doctrine threatening U.S. deterrence credibility
Military Planning Shifts to Nuclear Reality
The 2025 Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises represent a fundamental change in American military planning on the Korean Peninsula. U.S. Forces Korea and the Combined Forces Command now explicitly incorporate scenarios where North Korea uses nuclear weapons at the conflict’s outset, abandoning previous assumptions that treated nuclear escalation as unlikely. This shift acknowledges a long time warning: Kim Jong Un’s regime views nuclear weapons not as tools of last resort, but as essential first-strike capabilities for regime survival.
The strategic logic behind North Korea’s nuclear first-use doctrine stems from its conventional military weakness. Decades of economic isolation have left Pyongyang’s conventional forces outdated and outmatched against modern U.S.-South Korean capabilities. Robert E. Kelly’s analysis demonstrates that North Korea’s leadership understands any prolonged conventional conflict would result in regime destruction, making early nuclear deployment their most rational strategic option.
Regime Survival Drives Nuclear Calculus
Kim Jong Un’s nuclear strategy differs fundamentally from other nuclear powers because his regime faces genuine existential threats. Unlike Russia or China, which possess robust conventional militaries and economic resilience, North Korea’s survival depends entirely on deterring external intervention. The regime has witnessed what happened to non-nuclear states like Iraq and Libya, reinforcing their belief that nuclear weapons represent the ultimate insurance policy against regime change operations.
The rational response involves deploying nuclear weapons before they can be destroyed, fundamentally altering traditional deterrence dynamics and escalation control mechanisms that American planners have relied upon for decades.
Implications for American Security Guarantees
North Korea’s credible nuclear first-use capability directly challenges America’s extended deterrence commitments to South Korea and regional allies. The prospect of nuclear retaliation against U.S. forces stationed in Korea or American territory raises serious questions about whether future presidents would risk American cities to defend Seoul. This erosion of deterrence credibility could trigger regional arms races as allies lose confidence in American security guarantees.
The defense implications extend beyond the Korean Peninsula to broader questions of American global leadership. If North Korean nuclear threats successfully deter U.S. intervention, other adversaries may conclude that nuclear weapons provide effective tools for challenging American interests. This could accelerate nuclear proliferation among both hostile regimes and nervous allies seeking independent deterrent capabilities against regional threats.
Sources:
North Korea Seems Likely to Use Nuclear Weapons First America Needs to Think It Through
North Korea Can Nuke the U.S. Mainland Will America Still Defend South Korea