At a glance:
- Russian forces have captured over 2,350 square kilometers of territory in eastern Ukraine and the Kursk region this autumn.
- Casualty rates for Russia have skyrocketed, with an estimated 125,800 troops lost in the autumn offensives alone.
- Ukraine and Russia face contrasting challenges in manpower and tactics as the conflict evolves into a high-tech war of attrition.
As winter settles in, Russian forces continue their slow and bloody advance in eastern Ukraine. Utilizing what analysts have dubbed “meat-grinder” tactics, Moscow has reclaimed over 2,350 square kilometers of territory this autumn. However, this grinding strategy has come at a staggering human cost.
According to Britain’s Ministry of Defense, November saw Russia suffer its highest monthly casualties since the start of its full-scale invasion in 2022, with 45,680 troops killed or wounded. The peak occurred on November 28, when Russia lost more than 2,000 soldiers in a single day.
The Cost of “Meat-Grinder” Tactics
Russia’s battlefield approach prioritizes overwhelming manpower and massed assaults to grind down Ukrainian defenses. Analysts estimate that Russia has lost 50 soldiers for every square kilometer gained in its autumn campaign. This strategy recalls Soviet-era tactics, where sheer numbers were used to offset organizational and logistical disadvantages.
The term “meat grinder” highlights the brutal calculus of attrition and mass mobilization at play. A report by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimates that Russia has lost approximately 125,800 soldiers in the autumn offensives alone.
Ukraine, meanwhile, does not disclose its military casualty figures, but Russian sources claim Ukraine has lost 38,000 troops in the Kursk region alone. Independent verification of these numbers remains impossible, but Ukrainian war correspondent Yuriy Butusov suggests Ukraine’s total losses since the invasion began may exceed 70,000 soldiers, with another 35,000 missing.
New Dynamics in the Conflict
Despite heavy losses, Russia’s advances in eastern Ukraine have accelerated recently, albeit at a slower pace than during the early months of the invasion. The use of glide bombs and drones has transformed the battlefield, diminishing the dominance of artillery in favor of high-tech warfare.
“Drone warfare has made infantry toothless, if not obsolete,” one Ukrainian soldier remarked.
Russia’s reliance on glide bombs, launched from jets within its own territory, has increased tenfold over the past year, inflicting devastating damage on Ukrainian positions. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s improved artillery capabilities have shifted the ratio of shelling from 13:1 in Russia’s favor to just 1.5:1.
Manpower Challenges
Both nations face significant challenges in maintaining troop levels. Russia continues to replenish its ranks through conscription and financial incentives, with bonuses as high as three million rubles ($30,000) for volunteers. Yet, these troops often lack training and proper equipment, leading to high casualty rates among inexperienced fighters.
In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky has resisted lowering the conscription age below 25, limiting the pool of recruits. However, recent laws have expanded conscription efforts, leading to reports of eligible men being forcibly drafted.
The Human Toll and Future Outlook
The human cost of the conflict is immense, with both countries facing long-term societal and cultural ramifications. Russia’s poor treatment of its soldiers has fueled discontent among military families, with veterans committing violent crimes upon returning home.
Russia’s continued reliance on massed troops also makes its formations vulnerable to modern surveillance and precision strikes. While its strategy has yielded gains, analysts warn of diminishing returns as morale and logistical support falter.
For now, Russian President Vladimir Putin shows no inclination toward peace. His government has allocated 41% of its 2025 budget to defense spending, with plans to expand the military to nearly 2.4 million personnel.
The ongoing war has reshaped the rules of modern conflict, with both sides innovating to gain an edge. As the fighting intensifies, the ultimate outcome may hinge as much on economic and societal resilience as on military tactics.