Trump’s Defense Plan Shocks Europe

Flags of multiple countries against blue sky

Trump’s 2026 National Defense Strategy boldly demotes Europe to NATO’s backseat driver, forcing wealthy allies to finally foot their own bill against a weakened Russia.

Story Snapshot

U.S. prioritizes homeland, Western Hemisphere, and Indo-Pacific over Europe, labeling it a secondary theater.
NATO allies must take primary responsibility for conventional defense against Russia, with the U.S. limited to intelligence and advanced enablers.
Strategy incentives 5% GDP defense spending pledge through prioritized industrial cooperation for compliant nations.
Elbridge Colby, NDS architect, attends NATO meetings in place of absent Secretary Pete Hegseth, signaling firm resolve.
Europe’s economic and demographic superiority to Russia justifies the shift, per the document.

2026 NDS Release Reshapes U.S. Priorities

The U.S. Department of War published the 2026 National Defense Strategy on January 23, 2026. This document formalizes a strategic pivot from the late 2025 National Security Strategy. America defends its homeland first, then the Western Hemisphere and Indo-Pacific. Europe drops to secondary status. Russia poses a persistent but manageable threat. European NATO outmatches Russia in population, economy, and military potential. Allies assume the lead for conventional defense. The U.S. provides critical support like intelligence, logistics, and high-end weapons.

Key Architects Drive Burden-Sharing Agenda

Elbridge Colby, Under Secretary for Policy, crafted the NDS core tenets. He advocates “NATO 3.0,” reverting to the founding-era equitable burden-sharing. Secretary Pete Hegseth skips the February 12, 2026, Brussels NATO defense ministers meeting. Colby attends instead, underscoring U.S. firmness. Hegseth’s absence sends a deliberate message. Congress mandates at least 85,000 U.S. troops in Europe, currently met at around that number. Legal barriers block major drawdowns now.

NATO Reactions and Timeline Unfold

Politico reported on February 11, 2026, U.S. signals limited, unreplaced redeployments from Europe. NATO officers note no major withdrawal imminent. Discussions dominate Brussels meetings and the ongoing Munich Security Conference. Secretary Marco Rubio delivers a speech there, balancing NATO support with reform calls and an Asia focus. No formal U.S. briefing has reached the NATO North Atlantic Council yet. Mixed signals create urgency among allies.

European NATO members boosted defense budgets 41% from 2021-2025, spurred by U.S. pressure and Russia’s Ukraine war. Frontline states like Poland push for maximum U.S. ties while hedging with national and EU autonomy. The NDS introduces a “model allies” hierarchy. Compliant nations gain priority access to U.S. capabilities and industrial cooperation.

Historical Precedents Fuel the Shift

Trump’s first term criticized NATO free-riding. JD Vance’s 2025 Munich speech lambasted European complacency. Colby’s long-time push aligns with common-sense conservatism: prosperous allies defend their backyard. Russia’s Ukraine campaign shows resolve but no path to European dominance. This justifies recalibration. U.S. retains rhetorical nuclear umbrella commitment. Strategy creates a defensive perimeter around Eurasia, eyes on China.

Short-term, legal hurdles and mixed signals prompt NATO action. Long-term, Europe builds autonomy as the U.S. hones Indo-Pacific focus. Conditional U.S. involvement introduces uncertainty. Economically, rearmament accelerates transatlantic defense ties. Politically, tiers emerge among allies. Socially, frontline tensions rise if perceptions of U.S. unreliability grow. Defence24 analysis views this as maneuver room for European independence.