Fox’s Latest Poll Sparks Conservative Doubts

Texas and U.S. flags in front of a capitol building dome — Photo: Hannes Guggenberger / Shutterstock

A new Fox News poll says a Democrat is leading in a Texas Senate race, but Sean Hannity is telling viewers he does not buy it for “two seconds.”

Story Snapshot

Fox News’ own poll shows James Talarico up 51–48 over Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race.
Sean Hannity openly rejected the poll on air, saying he does not believe it “for two seconds.”
The poll used 1,006 registered Texas voters and shows deep division among Republicans.
Other recent surveys also show a tight race, with some giving Talarico a narrow edge over Paxton.

Fox Poll Says Democrat Leads Paxton in Texas

Fox News released a statewide poll that shocked many conservatives by showing Democratic State Representative James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 51 percent to 48 percent in the race for the United States Senate. The survey, run July 23–27, questioned 1,006 registered voters in Texas and reported a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three points. Because the lead is only three points, even Fox framed the race as very close and well within normal polling noise, not a settled verdict about November’s final result.

Poll details raise deeper concerns about Republican unity, which matters greatly to conservative voters who want to keep the Senate in firm constitutional hands. Coverage of the poll notes that Talarico is winning about 68 percent of independents and around a quarter of non–Make America Great Again Republicans, suggesting some soft support on the right that Democrats hope to exploit. At the same time, Attorney General Paxton still holds strong backing among committed conservatives, especially those aligned with President Trump’s agenda, which keeps the race competitive.

Hannity Draws a Line: ‘I Don’t Believe It’

During a heated exchange with former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, Fox News host Sean Hannity was pressed about his own network’s numbers showing Talarico leading Paxton by three points. De Blasio asked if he had “read your own poll” that put the Democrat ahead, turning the survey into a talking point about Republican weakness. Hannity pushed back hard, answering, “I don’t believe it for two seconds,” and repeating that he did not accept the poll’s claim at all, signaling to his audience that they should treat the result with clear skepticism.

Hannity’s rejection did not attack one single technical detail of the poll but instead challenged its overall picture of Texas leaning toward a Democrat, which many long‑time conservatives find hard to square with their lived experience and values. The Fox poll was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, one firm tied to Democrats and one to Republicans, which the network often cites as proof of balance in its survey work. Yet the lack of a fully public technical appendix with question wording, weighting rules, and turnout screens leaves room for viewers and grassroots activists to wonder whether hidden assumptions are tilting the numbers against strong conservative candidates.

Multiple Polls Show a Tight, Volatile Race

Fox News’ survey is not the only poll to show a competitive race that could threaten a long‑standing Republican seat if conservatives grow complacent. A recent poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University reported Talarico ahead 47 percent to 45 percent, again within a slim margin and based on 1,200 likely voters. Another Texas Public Opinion Research survey released earlier had Talarico leading 45 percent to 40 percent, pointing to a trend that Democrats and their media allies are using to claim Texas is “flippable.”

A Houston Chronicle summary of the Fox poll stressed Talarico’s edge among independents and some non‑MAGA Republicans, echoing talking points now common in national coverage that paint conservatives as divided and tired. At the same time, national polling averages tracked by outlets like the New York Times show the overall race still very close, with some polls tied or showing Paxton slightly ahead, confirming that nothing is locked in. For constitutional conservatives who care about border security, energy freedom, and stopping left‑wing judges, this mix of polling is a warning to focus on turnout and persuasion rather than assume Texas will always save itself.

What This Means for Conservative Voters

For Trump‑supporting voters in Texas and across the country, the clash between Fox’s polling desk and Hannity’s on‑air reaction highlights a deeper issue: who sets the narrative about where our movement stands. When a poll suggests a Democrat could capture a Senate seat in a state that values faith, family, and the Second Amendment, many viewers instinctively question whether media and academic pollsters truly understand their communities. Hannity’s blunt refusal to accept the numbers matches that gut feeling, even as the formal survey methods aim to look neutral and scientific.

3c. That comes from the left especially from the fake news CNN/MSNBC. Millions of Republicans watch Fox New's Sean Hannity and Laura Ingram and they believe virtually everything they say. So I am warning both Sean & Laura to stop showing poll results from CNN on their shows. –

— Roman (@anguianoroman1) July 30, 2026

At the same time, these polls are a practical reminder that conservatives cannot coast on past victories, even with President Trump in the White House and Vice President Vance working to restore American strength. Tight races in red states mean every constitutional voter must stay engaged, learn the issues, and challenge any narrative that says defending gun rights, secure borders, and lower energy costs is a lost cause. Whether Hannity’s skepticism is later proven right or wrong by the final vote, the message to readers is clear: do not let poll headlines decide your level of effort or your belief that Texas—and America—can stay true to its conservative roots.